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US secretary of defense Mark Esper (Olivier Douliery/AFP)
US secretary of defense Mark Esper (Olivier Douliery/AFP)

The United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) has been told to start making plans to move its headquarters out of Stuttgart, Germany. In a media statement released on July 31, AFRICOM commander General Stephen J. Townsend said it would likely take months to consider potential locations and make a decision, but the process had started.

This news comes two days after US defense secretary Mark T. Esper announced that the US Department of Defense will withdraw 11,900 troops currently stationed in Germany, sending some home and moving the rest to other NATO countries. The headquarters of the United States European Command (EUCOM) will also move from Germany to Mons, Belgium.

 

Priority Shifts

This fits with the Pentagon’s troop reallocation plan as part of a broader initiative to shift American military policy away from counterterrorism and toward counteracting China and Russia’s expanding influence. But it also reflects the increasing estrangement between the US and Germany, a key European ally.

 

Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, president of the African Development Bank (AfDB)
Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, president of the African Development Bank (Riccardo Savi/via AFP)

Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, president of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has been cleared of corruption following the conclusion of a second ethics probe, which the United States had insisted on. A three-person team found insufficient evidence to prove allegations of corruption and nepotism that whistleblowers had leveled against Dr. Adesina, and found his submission to be persuasive.

A report by the AfDB’s Ethics Committee and Board of Governors had cleared him of misconduct in April, but the US, which is the second-largest AfDB shareholder, rejected the internal investigation and insisted that an independent panel review the case. The panel, led by former Irish president Mary Robinson, reviewed all the evidence and agreed with the earlier finding.

The Americans’ demand for a second investigation into Dr. Adesina’s conduct sparked outrage among African states that hold shares in the AfDB, with Nigeria in particular pushing back against what they perceived as an imposition on the bank by a non-African nation.

 

Dr. Adesina is free to pursue his re-election bid for president of the AfDB

 

The AfDB has been a key financier of major infrastructure projects, such as Mozambique’s liquid natural gas plant in Cabo Delgado province and the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Inga III hydropower project. The AfDB has also committed US$10 billion in funding to assist in the fight against COVID-19 on the continent.

With his name cleared, Dr. Adesina is free to pursue his re-election bid for president of the AfDB in August, running as the only candidate for the position and generally supported by the Bank’s African shareholders.

The full report of the auditors can be read here.

 

A satellite image of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Abbay River (Blue Nile) in Ethiopia on July 11, 2020. (courtesy of Maxar Technologies/via AFP)
A satellite image of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Abbay River (Blue Nile) in Ethiopia on July 11, 2020. (courtesy of Maxar Technologies/via AFP)

Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed’s office put out a press release on July 21 confirming the first year’s filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been achieved thanks to heavier than normal seasonal rainfall and runoff. Abiy commended the African Union for leading the latest talks between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt to address their differences over the dam’s filling and operation, and said that further technical discussions would continue.

The statement was light on details but seems to indicate that Ethiopia is pulling back from some of its more aggressive rhetoric used against Egypt, as the two nations have rattled sabers at each other over the course of negotiations. Egyptian hackers have even launched a cyberattack on Ethiopian government websites in the past month.

There has been no official response to the press release from Egypt or Sudan.

Egypt has referred to the GERD as an “existential threat” over fears that a rapid filling of the dam could lower water levels in the Nile to a dangerous degree. Amid rumors last week that Ethiopia had begun to fill the GERD before an agreement had been reached between the three countries, Sudan reported a drop in the water level of the Blue Nile—also known as the Abbay River—reaching it from upstream Ethiopia.

When Egypt sought urgent clarification from Ethiopia over the reports that the reservoir was being filled, the Ethiopian water and energy minister responded that the level was rising due to heavy rains and not to conscious efforts to fill the dam. He said the overflow would be “triggered soon.”

 

Key Questions Remain

The key questions are how much water Ethiopia will release in years of low rainfall, and how future disputes will be resolved.

The United States, United Nations, and African Union have mediated negotiations to resolve the impasse. The American response has been ambivalent, however, as some in the Trump administration want to side with Egypt, a strategic US military partner, whereas others worry this risks driving a wedge between the US and Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous nation.

 

An still photo taken from a video shows Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s former leader, arriving at a courthouse in Khartoum on July 21. (Mohammed Abuamrain/AFP)
An still photo taken from a video shows Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s former leader, arriving at a courthouse in Khartoum on July 21. (Mohammed Abuamrain/AFP)

Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese president who ruled with impunity for thirty years before being ousted last year following weeks of civilian protests, entered a Khartoum courthouse on Tuesday, July 21, to face charges over his involvement in the 1989 coup that brought him to power.

Bashir has already been sentenced to two years in prison for corruption, after he confessed to taking bribes to the value of US$90 million from Saudi Arabia during a trial held last year. He faces a possible death sentence if convicted. His court appearance was brief, as the judge adjourned the trial until August 11 with the intention of continuing in a larger venue that could seat the defendants and their relatives while also being mindful of COVID-19 containment measures.

In the meantime, the International Criminal Court in The Hague is still waiting for the dictator to be transferred to its jurisdiction, having indicted Bashir in 2009 and 2010 for crimes against humanity linked to ethnic cleansing campaigns in the Darfur region. Sudan agreed in February that Bashir should be brought before the ICC, but has since done little to make this happen.

 

This photo posted on the official Facebook page of Egypt’s presidential spokesman on July 16 shows President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (center) meeting with Libyan tribal leaders in Cairo. (Egyptian Presidency/via AFP)
This photo posted on the official Facebook page of Egypt’s presidential spokesman on July 16 shows President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (center) meeting with Libyan tribal leaders in Cairo. (Egyptian Presidency/via AFP)

Egypt’s parliament has given President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi a mandate to deploy troops “outside the borders of the Egyptian state, to defend Egyptian national security in the Arab strategic direction against the actions of armed criminal militias and foreign terrorist elements.”

The mandate was passed only a few days after Sisi met with Libyan tribal leaders, who asked for the support of the Egyptian armed forces to “expel the Turkish colonizer.” The vagueness of the mandate’s wording, however, suggests that this approval by parliament could also have been given in the context of the ongoing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

 

It increases the risk of the conflict turning into a full-blown regional proxy war

 

Egypt has been a continuous supporter of the Libyan House of Representatives, based in Tobruk, the rival government to the Government of National Accord (GNA), which is based in Tripoli. The House of Representatives is supported by the Libyan National Army (LNA) under its commander Khalifa Haftar, which has been waging a steady campaign to oust the GNA since April 2019. Just a few months ago, Turkey began to send troops and material support to the GNA, helping to stop the LNA’s advance on Tripoli and reverse several key gains it had made.

Reacting to these setbacks, Sisi has issued several public statements making it clear that the seizure of the Libyan cities of Sirte and Jufra by rival forces would be viewed as a red line, thus inviting military intervention. Jufra functions as a corridor into western Libya and is home to an airbase that has been crucial for LNA advances. Sirte is an oil port that plays a key role in the Libyan oil economy. Both Egypt and Turkey are looking to expand their Mediterranean energy markets, with Libya a key strategic location for both countries.

Unlike prior escalations of the Libyan conflict, the direct involvement of the Egyptian military in Libya’s protracted civil war increases the risk of the conflict turning into a full-blown regional proxy war akin to what has transpired in Yemen and Syria. With Turkey a member of NATO and Egypt an ally of the United States, the fallout of such a conflict would be catastrophic for regional security and for the well-being of Libyan civilians. Every effort now needs to be made to pull all foreign actors operating in Libyan territory back from the brink.

 

King Mohammed VI
King Mohammed VI of Morocco

Mali’s fraught political environment continues to involve more international mediators, with Morocco the latest country to intercede between President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta and the Mouvement du 5 Juin–Rassemblement des Forces Patriotiques (M5–RFP). King Mohammed VI sent Moroccan foreign minister Nasser Bourita to Mali to mediate talks between Keïta and Imam Mahmoud Dicko, the de facto leader of the M5–RFP.

Arriving on July 11, a day after protests in Bamako escalated into deadly clashes with security forces, Bourita delegated Hassan Naciri, the Moroccan ambassador to Mali, to meet with Dicko at his home. Dicko listed his terms for resuming talks with the government, including the release of opposition leaders, and Naciri convinced him to make a public statement calling for calm and a cessation of protests while negotiations took place. Naciri then met with President Keïta to relay Dicko’s demands.

 

ECOWAS Proposals Rejected

This past weekend, a delegation of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) met with M5–RFP members to try to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis, but their proposals were dismissed.

 

Professor Ernest Wamba dia Wamba
Professor Ernest Wamba dia Wamba

Professor Ernest Wamba dia Wamba, one of Africa’s foremost philosophers, civil rights activists, and pro-democracy scholars, passed away at the University Clinic of Kinshasa on Wednesday, July 15.

Wamba dia Wamba obtained his education in the United States after earning a scholarship through the African-American Institute, studying at Western Michigan University before earning his MBA at Claremont University. He taught at Brandeis and Harvard universities while in the United States, where he met his wife and got involved in the civil rights movement through the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee.

 

He became a history professor at the University of Dar es Salaam

 

He moved Tanzania and became a history professor at the University of Dar es Salaam, which had become an intellectual nexus of Pan-African thought. He founded the university’s philosophy club, and from 1992 to 1995 he served as the president of the Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA).

In 1998, Wamba dia Wamba founded the Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD) with the support of Uganda and Rwanda, and began a campaign against newly installed DRC president Laurent-Désiré Kabila. In August, the RCD launched an attack on Goma, starting the Second Congo War. The RCD later split into two factions, supported by the two rival neighboring countries, after which Wamba dia Wamba faced revolt in his own faction.

After the war, Wamba dia Wamba became a senator in the DRC government and helped to draft a new constitution. He continued to write and was a noted political theorist. More recently, in May 2017, he was appointed president of the political-religious movement Bundu dia Mayala.

 

 

French president Emmanuel Macron and Chadian president Idriss Déby. (Francois Mori/AFP).
French president Emmanuel Macron and Chadian president Idriss Déby. (Francois Mori/AFP)

A transport vehicle carrying French troops came under fire from Chadian security forces outside the private residence of President Idriss Déby on Monday night. Luckily, no injuries were sustained and the vehicle continued on toward a French base, returning from a sortie carried out earlier in the day.

An investigation has been launched into the events leading up to the incident, but observers have expressed concern that this was the second time that Chadian troops have engaged in accidental friendly fire against French forces, the first occurring on June 9, again outside the presidential residence.

 

The US expressed deep concern over allegations of human rights abuses

 

The June 9 incident happened three weeks after a meeting between the heads of state of the G5 Sahel military alliance and French president Emmanuel Macron, where all parties agreed to stay the course while noting the deteriorating humanitarian situation.

Last Thursday, the United States Department of State released a statement expressing deep concern over allegations of human rights abuses committed by Sahelian security forces, and threatened to cut support for the offensive should they persist. This is an outcome the G5 Sahel cannot afford, nor can France, which has asked its European partners to send more soldiers and equipment to the Sahel.

 

Ra’s Lanuf Oil Refinery in northern Libya. (AFP)
Ra’s Lanuf Oil Refinery in northern Libya. (AFP)

Hopes of the Libyan economy clawing its way back from the brink of collapse were dashed this past weekend when Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA), said the LNA would maintain a blockade of Libyan ports and oil fields. This reimposition of the embargo against oil exports after it was briefly lifted is to force discussion about a fair distribution of oil revenue. The LNA is also demanding an audit of the central bank in Tripoli, the seat of the Government of National Accord (GNA).

Libya’s economy is heavily dependent on oil, which, in 2018, accounted for US$24.2 billion, or just under 87 percent, of all exports. When Haftar first instituted the blockade in January 2020, production dropped from 1.2 million to about 100,000 barrels of oil per day.

Libyans carry placards as they gather in front of the National Oil Corporation to protest against a blockade launched by groups allied to military strongman Khalifa Haftar last month of eastern Libya's main oil terminals, In the Libyan capital Tripoli on February 12, 2020. Libya has lost almost one billion dollars in revenues since the blockade of its most vital oil export facilities led to a slump in production. (Mahmud Turkia/AFP)
Libyans protest against an oil blockade imposed by groups allied to Khalifa Haftar in front of the National Oil Corporation headquarters in Tripoli on February 12. (Mahmud Turkia/AFP)

The state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC), based in Tripoli, claimed on July 5 that Russian private military contractors of the Wagner Group had occupied Sharara oil field, a claim Russia denies. The NOC has also accused the United Arab Emirates, which supports Haftar, of instructing the LNA to reimpose the blockade, a charge that neither the LNA nor UAE has responded to yet.

 

President Félix Tshisekedi

Diplomatic relations between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Israel continue to grow stronger. In a letter to President Félix Tshisekedi sent on the sixtieth anniversary of gaining independence from Belgium, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu invited his Congolese counterpart on a formal state visit.

“Israel had established diplomatic relations with the DRC soon after its declaration of independence in 1960, and we are greatly pleased by the friendship and warm cooperation shared during this period,” the letter reads. It concludes with a call for Tshisekedi to visit Jerusalem “as soon as conditions permit it,” a controversial action given that Israel maintains Jerusalem as the state capital despite East Jerusalem being in Palestinian territory and its annexation unrecognized by a vast majority of sovereign states.

 

The Congolese president has been pushing for greater diplomatic ties with Israel

 

In March, while attending a conference of the influential American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Tshisekedi announced he would be appointing an ambassador to Israel after a twenty-year gap. The Congolese president has been pushing for greater diplomatic ties with Israel, motivated in part by his evangelical faith and desire to bring in Israeli investment and expertise to help modernize the country. This has created rifts in the Front Commun pour le Congo (FCC), the party of his predecessor Joseph Kabila and a linchpin of Tshisekedi’s ruling coalition.

 

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